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Rybalchenko K.V., Ryadno O.A.

 
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: 25.03.10
: 810

: ' 27, 2015 2:55 pm     : Rybalchenko K.V., Ryadno O.A. ³

THE ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF EXPENDITURES OF THE POPULATION IN THE REGIONS OF UKRAINE
Rybalchenko K.V., master
Ryadno O.A., Doctor of Engineering, professor
University of Law and Administration, Rzeszow, Poland
e-mail: Ekaterina_vr@ukr.net


The providing of effective and suspended budget policy that directed onto solving strategic tasks of social and economic development of the country is the most important nowadays. In particular way the development of the real sector of the economy, growth of the standards of living of the population, supporting of the disadvantaged population is also an important part of suspended budget policy of Ukraine. The current condition of the market economy shows the variety of forms of the unequal distribution of social benefits, for example the receiving and usage of incomes and services, level of welfare of every member of the society.
Econometric modeling like a method of the scientific research is wildly uses for efficient management, quantitative analysis of correlation between the economic indicators and their forecasting. The econometric model consists of regression equations that show the stochastic and economic correlations and also some identities between the economic indicators.
The research and structuring of the econometric models have its special features. Such features are connected with the stochastic character of the econometric model. Also the correlation and regression relations between econometric indicators are described by econometric model. This correlation quantitatively characterizes present regularities of economic processes and effects. So, for building econometric model we should have a big amount of observations and guarantee their homogeneity and a high degree of accuracy.
Such factors like income and expenses of the population, average monthly salary, goods and services expenditures in the regions of Ukraine during several years of sustainable development of the economy after the crisis in 2008 were chosen for building of economic and mathematical model. This data structure helps us to build a panel regression model. As a source of information we used statistical information from the Ukrainian statistical yearbooks.
From the chosen indicators was build the model of multiple linear regression and founded estimated parameters:



where - the expenses of population in the regions of Ukraine, (millions of UAH); - the expenses of population on one person, (UAH); - incomes of population, (millions of UAH); - the expenses for purchases of goods and services (millions of UAH).
Examination of the model onto the multicollinearity excluded from consideration dependence of factor because of it close correlation with factor .
So, build such multifactorial linear regression:

.

Coefficient of determination for this model is =0,99.
Testing of the importance of the regression coefficient , , , that were valuated by Student t-test, shows that all indicators of the formula are valuable, because of exaggeration of critic value in 5 % of calculated values of t-statistic.
Checking of a hypothesis about level of importance between dependent variables and the explanatory variables with using of F- criteria confirm an essence of this relation when = 0.05. Calculated partial coefficients of elasticity on the base of average value:

, , .
The partial coefficient of elasticity shows that with the growth of the first factor on 1% (when the expenditures on one person growth), the volume of expenses of the population will growth on 0,65 %. The main condition of it will be constant value of the other factors. The partial coefficient of elasticity shows that with the growth of the second factor on 1% and the value of the other factors will be constant, the volume of expenses of the population will decrease on 0,79 % and the , which shows increase of expenses of the population on 0,97 % with increase of incomes of the population on 1%.
With the help of this equation of regression we can make some forecast analysis.

Literature:
1. Statistical yearbook Regions of Ukraine of 2013. Internet resource: http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/
2. Statistical yearbook of Ukraine of the year 2012. National Statistic service of Ukraine. Kyiv 2013, page 551.
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